Consumer sentiment has cratered to its lowest point in more than 70 years of polling, even as the hard economic data tells a markedly different story. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 49.8 in April — its lowest reading since the index launched — with declines cutting across all political affiliations, income levels, ages, and education backgrounds. 64% of survey respondents expect unemployment to rise over the next year, a level never previously recorded outside an actual recession. 73% of Americans say the economy is performing poorly, according to an April AP-NORC poll.
Yet the hard data paints a different picture. Retail sales held solid in March, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed last week in record territory, and jobless claims dropped to 189,000 in the week ending April 25 — the lowest reading since 1969, well below economist expectations of 212,000 and down 26,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims fell to 1.79 million, their lowest reading in two years. High-profile layoff announcements have not yet translated into meaningful job cuts.
What is translating: the lived experience of job seekers who keep striking out in a market where hiring has slowed dramatically even as layoffs remain low. That experience is coloring perceptions far beyond those directly affected. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index edged up 0.6 points to 92.8 in April, but the Expectations Index — at 72.2 — remains below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a recession ahead.
Read more via The Wall Street Journal, Marketwatch, The Conference Board, Bloomberg
As large employers pull back, businesses with fewer than 20 employees have become the primary engine of U.S. job creation — and they may offer the class of 2026 a foothold that bigger companies aren't providing. According to ADP data, small businesses created more than 525,000 jobs in 2025 and added 169,000 more in Q1 2026, outpacing every larger employer category. Without their contribution, the U.S. economy would have shed 110,000 private-sector jobs last year. Turnover at small employers hit a record low of 3.9% in March, and the pay gap between the smallest and largest employers has narrowed to just 2.3 percentage points.
For new graduates, small businesses represent a genuine on-ramp: nearly 1 million new grads are expected to be hired at small businesses during the 2026 hiring season, according to Gusto data covering more than 500,000 businesses. Overall hiring projections for the class of 2026 rose 5.6% year over year, per NACE's Job Outlook Spring Update. One notable split: AI is reshaping even small-business hiring. Total small-business employment grew 9.6% from 2023 to late 2025, but employment in highly AI-exposed roles grew just 3.4%, with workers aged 22–28 in those roles experiencing headcount reductions.
Read more via CNBC, ADP Research
A new Conference Board survey of 114 HR executives finds hiring and engagement expectations at their strongest levels since the index launched in 2023, even as CEO confidence shows signs of wavering. 59% of CHROs expect to increase hiring in the first half of 2026, up from 54% in Q4 2025, pushing the CHRO Confidence Index to a record high of 59. Engagement expectations jumped sharply — 53% of CHROs expect engagement levels to increase, up from 43% last quarter.
Retention is the persistent weak spot. Only 34% of CHROs expect retention to improve, and nearly half expect no change. The findings stand in contrast to a separate Vistage survey of CEOs, where hiring expansion plans fell from 57% to 51% quarter over quarter, with the Iran conflict cited as a key source of uncertainty. Workforce investment over the past six months has concentrated on leadership and manager development (50%), followed by AI and automation for HR and operations (36%). Only 20% of those investing in AI directed funds toward learning and coaching tools.
Read more via The Conference Board, HR Dive
An unusually divided Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady for the third consecutive meeting, as Chair Jerome Powell announced he plans to remain on the board of governors after his chairmanship ends May 15. The decision drew the most dissents since October 1992. The Fed cited elevated inflation — now at 3.3% — and a job market that Powell described as having "ground almost to a halt." In his words, the labor market is "in balance, but an unusual and uncomfortable kind of balance where people who don't have jobs will have a hard time breaking in unless somebody quits their job."
Powell confirmed he will stay as a governor until an investigation into Fed building renovations reaches "transparency and finality" — effectively denying the Trump administration an additional board appointment. His governor term runs through January 2028. The Senate Banking Committee separately advanced Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair on a party-line vote; because Powell is staying, Warsh will take Governor Miran's seat rather than Powell's, leaving the board's policy balance largely unchanged.
The Department of Labor has published a proposed rule aimed at clarifying when two companies share legal responsibility for the same employee — a question with direct implications for staffing firms, franchises, and any organization using contract or contingent labor. The proposal introduces a four-factor test to determine joint employer status: whether a company hires or fires the employee, supervises their work schedule or conditions, determines their pay, and maintains their employment records. The rule also clarifies that common business practices — providing a sample employee handbook or requiring anti-harassment training — do not by themselves create joint employer status. Joint employment is most prevalent in staffing, franchising, construction, and farming. The 60-day public comment period runs through June 22.
Read more via Fortune
Spirit Airlines ceased operations at 3 a.m. Saturday after a federal bailout fell apart, ending 34 years of service and triggering an immediate scramble to support displaced employees. About 17,000 direct and indirect employees lost their jobs with no advance notice — many learning via a middle-of-the-night email or from their union as the airline's website and app went dark. The Association of Flight Attendants sent an urgent letter to the Transportation and Labor secretaries asking that Spirit's roughly 5,000 flight attendants receive earned wages, vacation pay, and a $600 weekly federal supplement to state unemployment.
Florida's economic development office organized an emergency rapid response event for displaced workers in Hollywood, offering resume assistance and career counseling. Several major carriers moved quickly to fill the gap: United capped fares at $199 on Spirit routes and explicitly invited former Spirit employees to apply for open roles, committing to prioritize their applications.
Read more via CNBC, Business Insider, NBC News
A new ZipRecruiter survey of 3,000 recent and rising graduates finds today's grads working harder to break in, accepting roles below their qualifications, and increasingly anxious about AI's impact on entry-level hiring. 77% of recent grads landed a role within three months of graduating, up from 63% a year ago — but they're applying to more jobs, receiving fewer offers, and having less say in where they land. Only 26% describe themselves as on their ideal career path. 51% say their current role is a stepping stone, and nearly one in five are in "bridge" jobs taken primarily to cover expenses while continuing their search. 20% say they're overqualified for their current role; 18% intentionally applied below their level just to get a foothold.
47% say AI has already impacted hiring in their field, and about half believe AI will reduce entry-level jobs — yet only 23% report that their school provided extensive AI training for professional use. A gender gap runs through both pay and AI preparation: women graduates earned a median $48,000 versus $60,000 for men, and only 19% of women reported AI training integrated into their curriculum, compared to 29% of men. Working during college more than doubles the odds of landing a job after graduation: 82% of grads with work experience are currently employed, versus 41% of those without it.
Read more via ZipRecruiter, HR Dive
As premiums keep rising, young and healthy workers are increasingly deciding that company health insurance isn't worth the cost — and their exit threatens to destabilize employer-sponsored plans for everyone who stays. The share of workers covered by employer benefits has fallen to 61%, down from 64% in 2020, according to KFF. Premiums for company family plans rose 6% in 2025. As many as 40% of workers waived major medical benefits last year due to cost, particularly at firms with large blue-collar or front-line workforces. The workers most likely to leave are young and healthy — exactly the people employers rely on to file few claims and keep plans financially sustainable.
Mercer forecasts total health plan costs per employee will grow at the highest rate in more than a decade in 2026, at 6.5%. About half of large employers say the increases are pushing them to raise deductibles or exclude pricey treatments, including GLP-1 drugs. On GLP-1 coverage: only 19% of firms with 200 or more employees covered GLP-1s for weight loss last year, rising to 43% among employers with 5,000 or more workers. Up to 50% of a workforce could be eligible for GLP-1 treatment, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute — making coverage decisions a significant financial question with no clean answer yet. Experts recommend against broad, permanent coverage commitments while pricing and clinical evidence are still evolving.
Read more via Bloomberg, HCA Magazine
Fidelity is the latest major employer to go all-in on five days a week, but elsewhere, return-to-office mandates are running into union disputes, health complaints, legal challenges, and age discrimination claims. Fidelity will require its roughly 6,200 Boston-based workers and more than 15,000 employees across New Hampshire, Kentucky, and New Mexico to return five days a week beginning in September. Financial Times journalists unanimously voted to launch a formal dispute over plans to increase their office mandate from three days to four, citing concerns about discrimination against parents, commuting costs, and workers hired under the existing policy. Stellantis employees began reporting nosebleeds, migraines, and vomiting after the automaker mandated a five-day return to its 1990s-era Auburn Hills headquarters — Michigan safety regulators inspected but did not cite violations.
The state of Vermont may owe employees restitution for commuting and childcare costs after a labor board ruled its RTO order was issued without good-faith union bargaining, while also on the hook for 22,000 square feet of additional office space leased to support a mandate that may have to be unwound. AT&T faces an age discrimination lawsuit from a 30-year employee terminated at 58 after declining to relocate under the company's office consolidation program, with the suit alleging the CEO made comments about needing "younger people" while younger colleagues were offered hybrid arrangements she was denied.
Read more via Bloomberg, The Telegraph, Detroit News, The Hill, HCA Magazine
Rogo Technologies, founded by three former Wall Street analysts frustrated with late-night Excel and PowerPoint work, just raised $160 million at a valuation that tripled in three months — from $750 million to $2 billion. The round was led by Kleiner Perkins and backed by Sequoia, Thrive Capital, and JPMorgan's Growth Equity Partners. The company has more than 35,000 users and counts JPMorgan, Bank of America, Lazard, and Wells Fargo among its 250-plus clients. Its platform can build slide decks, design corporate restructurings, and produce research that would take an analyst dozens of hours manually. The founders say AI will free junior bankers for more meaningful work earlier in their careers. Others on Wall Street worry it will simply reduce how many junior bankers get hired.
Read more via Bloomberg
Walmart plans to equip every employee — from its tech team to in-store greeters — with AI skills over the next few years, with a focus on agentic tools that reduce friction in day-to-day work. The company has built four agent platforms using a mix of custom and external large language models and offers role-specific AI certifications through an internal platform called Squiggly. For front-line workers, practical applications include faster inventory lookup and real-time translation. Walmart's Chief People Officer noted the company has the same headcount it did six years ago while generating significantly higher revenue, and described the initiative's goal as creating more time for face-to-face customer work — not headcount reduction.
Read more via HR Dive
Only 39% of Fortune 100 boards have any form of AI oversight, according to McKinsey. Just 13% of S&P 500 companies have at least one director with AI-related expertise, and 66% of directors say their boards have limited to no knowledge or experience with AI. The gap carries real financial weight: boards with AI-literate directors outperform peers by 10.9 percentage points in return on equity, per an MIT study. CEOs plan to roughly double AI spending in 2026, from 0.8% to about 1.7% of revenues — with many acknowledging their jobs could be at risk if the investment doesn't pay off. A separate white paper from law firm Pinsent Masons warns that reputational damage from AI-driven decisions perceived as unfair or discriminatory can be as damaging as formal regulatory action.
Read more via Axios, Forbes, Pinsent Masons
Taylor Swift is trying to trademark her voice to fight AI fakes. Swift's team filed trademark applications for "Hey, it's Taylor Swift" and "Hey, it's Taylor," along with a photo of the singer. Legal experts say trademarks could allow Swift to challenge not just exact copies but imitations that are "confusingly similar," though many are skeptical the applications will hold up. Copyright law protects songs but not voices, leaving artists to find creative workarounds. (The Verge)
Researchers invented a fake disease to trick AI. It worked a little too well. A University of Gothenburg team uploaded two fabricated studies about a fictional skin condition called "bixonimania" to a preprint server in 2024. Within weeks, ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Microsoft Copilot were all describing it as real — and the fake papers began appearing as citations in peer-reviewed academic literature. (Futurism)
Alabama Supreme Court fines lawyer $17,000 for AI-generated fake citations. The court dismissed an appeal and referred Mobile attorney W. Perry Hall to the state bar after his briefs were found to contain AI-hallucinated citations to nonexistent cases. Hall is now barred from filing anything with the court unless a licensed attorney co-signs. (AL.com)
Hundreds of AI-generated pro-Trump influencer accounts have emerged on social media ahead of the midterms. The New York Times identified at least 304 accounts on TikTok alone featuring AI-generated avatars posting at high volume, some exceeding 35,000 followers with individual posts topping half a million views. (The New York Times)
Delaware bans AI from holding medical licenses. A new law signed April 23 bars "nonhuman entities," including AI agents, from being licensed as nurses, physicians, or physician assistants. The law took effect immediately. (Delaware Online)
China: Beijing announced plans to upskill 1 million young jobseekers in AI and robotics, including encouraging university graduates to return to vocational school. The policy has drawn backlash amid a youth unemployment rate above one in six. A record 12.7 million new graduates are expected to enter the job market this summer. (South China Morning Post)
Germany: The economy grew 0.3% in Q1 — a surprisingly positive result — but economists have downgraded full-year forecasts to 0.5%–0.6% growth, roughly half of pre-Iran-conflict expectations. (Yahoo Finance)
Japan: Unemployment fell to 2.6% in February, but retail sales unexpectedly declined 0.2% year over year and industrial production fell 2.1% month over month, painting a mixed picture. (MSN)
Mexico: GDP fell 0.8% in Q1 — the largest quarterly decline since late 2024 — and was nearly flat year over year at 0.1%, stoking recession concerns. (MSN/Bloomberg)
Switzerland: A referendum proposal to cap the country's population at 10 million by 2050 is gaining support ahead of a June 14 vote, with 52% of respondents in favor. Opponents warn the measure could force Switzerland to abandon its free-movement agreement with the EU and damage its economy. (Time)
Every time someone at your organization uses an AI tool, a meter is running. Most people using those tools have no idea. In 2025, organizations spent an average of $1.2 million on AI-native applications — more than double the prior year — and nearly 8 in 10 IT leaders say they've been hit with unexpected charges. Token pricing looks manageable in a demo. At enterprise scale, the math tells a different story.
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